The NHL Playoffs are pushing forward, heading into the Conference Finals after today’s Game 7 matchup between the Nashville Predators and the Winnipeg Jets. This is the second Game 7 of these 2018 Playoffs, and I couldn’t be more excited. Nashville is coming off a year where they really emerged as a threat for the Stanley Cup, and they want to prove it wasn’t a fluke. The Jets want to bring playoff success to a city that has had a tumultuous NHL history to say the least. After 24 years of having the Jets in Winnipeg, the team was relocated to Phoenix in 1996. A few years later, the Atlanta Thrashers were founded. From 1999 to 2011, the Thrashers only made the playoffs one time, getting bounced in the Conference Quarterfinals. The team was relocated to Winnipeg, bringing the Jets back home, despite being an entirely different organization.
This has been a back and forth series with each team trading off wins. The Predators are 1-2 in this playoff series at home, but they have fared well this season at home, going 28-13. Winnipeg has struggled on the road, winning just under 50% of their games (20-21). It will be a great game tonight to decide who goes to the Conference Finals.
The Vegas Golden Knights are awaiting the winner of that series to play in the Conference Finals in the West, while the Eastern Conference Finals is already set between the Washington Capitals and the Tampa Bay Lightning. This is a very exciting year all around in the playoffs. The Capitals are on a high right now, finally getting past Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Lightning are trying to make it back to the Stanley Cup for the first time since losing to Chicago in 2015. The Golden Knights are on a historic run to be the first team in NHL history to make it to the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season.
Each team has their opportunity, but who has the best chance to make it to the Finals and hold the Stanley Cup at the end of this year?
Winnipeg Jets
Sorry Jets fans. Even with the 2nd best home winning percentage of the remaining teams (.667), their road record on the season and in these playoffs (1-5) just isn’t good enough to survive. Nashville is a very good team at home, winning 68.3% of games this regular season. If they beat Nashville tonight, they then face the Golden Knights who won 70.7% of regular season home games this year. This will be a tough fight that they just can’t get through this year.
This is a building year with a lot of promise for the future of the Jets franchise, winning 52 games. Good luck next year.
Washington Capitals
At just 2-7, the Capitals have struggled against the four options for opponents; however, I imagine after beating the Penguins, the Capitals will not want to waste their chance to make it to the Finals. The Lightning have home ice in the series, which could offset the Caps’ momentum. These two teams are very similar, which makes it a difficult call, but even with Alex Ovechkin, I think Tampa Bay is the more complete team. Washington will give Tampa Bay a fight, but will not overcome the better team after a tough series against Pittsburgh.
Even if they make it past the Lightning, the Caps are 1-5 against the Western Conference teams still in the playoffs. It would be a rough Finals for Washington.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay is an interesting team. They are 4-5 against the playoff teams, with no real advantage at home or on the road against these playoff teams. They are an excellent team and were expected to be here at the beginning of the season. They did what they needed to do, winning 54 games this season, to get to this point. Home ice will help in this series, but they have to play consistently against a Washington team who is as close as they have been to the Stanley Cup since 1998.
Should they beat the Capitals, which I think they will, they are 2-4 (.333) against the West this year. They are a solid team, but it just isn’t their year.
Nashville Predators
I know Nashville is great, and I loved watching them last year, and this season is no different. They are a fun, fast, physical team that wants to get back to the Stanley Cup. They need to play a focused game tonight against Winnipeg to put them in the Conference Finals. I think they will come out ready to play and make it happen. The Predators have averaged 3.58 goals per game and 3.17 goals against the remaining teams this season. They are a disciplined team and will give the Golden Knights a run for their money. Their home ice advantage is real. Those fans are passionate and love the success they have had these last two years. They help create an atmosphere that gets those players playing well. I see Nashville taking Vegas to six games, but ultimately falling to the Golden Knights, stopping Nashville from making their second consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearance.
I don’t believe Nashville will be undermanned against Vegas in any way, I just think it is difficult to beat a team who is playing the way Vegas is playing.
Vegas Golden Knights
A team that started the season at 200-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup is now the betting favorite at 3-1 (according to vegasinsider.com). The Golden Knights are on a tear right now, sweeping the Los Angeles Kings and beating the San Jose Sharks in six games. They have been resting and getting ready to see who their opponent will be. The old “rust vs. rest” question comes into play at this point. Some players will tell you they want to have the time off and be able to recover, and others will say they like to have just played because they are still riding the momentum from their most recent win and are still in game mode. The Predators and Jets fall into that category, and we will have to wait and see what side wins out. I’m sure the Golden Knights are ok with their current situation.
Looking at the regular season data, Vegas holds the best record against all the remaining teams. At home, Vegas has not lost to any of the teams (4-0) and only lost twice on the road (4-2). The Eastern Conference teams remaining have not beaten Vegas this year. It is a small sample size, but it goes along with how their season has gone. Against the remaining competition, Vegas scored 3.4 goals and only gave up 2.2 goals per game this season. That is almost a full goal less than the next closest (Nashville at 3.17). Defense is all about discipline in the NHL, and Vegas has it. As the old adage goes, “Defense wins championships.” I don’t expect this to change any time soon. This team does not take things for granted or overlook their opponents. If they maintain their path, I give the Golden Knights the best chance to pull off one of the greatest starts to a franchise in professional sports history.
What do you think? I’d love to hear your thoughts on my list and what you agree/disagree with!
*Stats provided by: https://www.hockey-reference.com/
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